A quick post to alert to one of my favorite situations: odd lot tenders (see, for example, the COSH tender last month). Chambers Street (CSG) is pursuing a dutch tender for ~5% of their shares outstanding between $10.10 and $10.60 a share. Here’s the offer to purchase. Odd lot shareholders w/ less than 100 shares are guaranteed tender. W/ shares trading at ~$10, that’s a profit of somewhere between 1-6% in less than a month. Given the small spread, I tend to think the offer will go through at the higher end of that range, resulting in returns closer to 6% than 1%. A quick review of the company make them look roughly fairly valued compared to other REITS out there, and there are no conditions to the tender (other than normal ones), so I think the deal is a safe bet to go through and offers nice reward with limited risk.
It’s no secret that one of my favorite investors to follow is Bulldog and the Special Opportunities Fund (SPE). So when their founder was elected chairman of the board of Imperial Holdings (IFT), I took notice. In the past few weeks, they’ve had several significant developments that have caused the price of the stock to skyrocket. However, I think the developments have taken almost all of the risk of the table, and a deep dive into the financials reveals potential for significant margin of safety. I’ve published an article on Imperial over on seeking alpha which is now live for all viewers. Here’s a quote to whet your appetite:
I think the first reason to suspect that the company is worth more than $6 is simply because the chairman told us so. Here’s a quote in Imperial from his fund’s semi-annual letter last year:
“We think Imperial’s intrinsic value is at least $8 per share. However, there is plenty of risk and there are big problems to be resolved – including the shareholder lawsuits, the SEC investigation, Imperial’s inability to file timely audited financial statements for 2011, securing the resources to continue to pay the premiums on its valuable life insurance policies, and establishing their validity.”
Disclosure: Long SPE preferreds, IFT
An upfront warning: this is much different than my normal investment wheelhouse. Options involve risk of serious loss. Do your own diligence, etc.
Yesterday, I put up a post on Winland (WELX) that accidentally put the ticker as “WEXL” instead of “WELX.” Of course, this was a mistake on my part. But it got me thinking about a post I’ve been meaning to put up for a while on the importance of doing your own research and thinking for yourself. Please note that this post is meant to be instructive, so please be sure to read the whole thing before commenting.
When the facts change, I change my mind
Two months ago, I posted about a potential “forced selling” opportunity in Winland (WEXL). I also noted that I had not taken a position in the stock.
Hondo Minerals (HMNC) is an interesting situation. It seems like a potential 5 bagger within a year or so, but my red flag alerts keep going off. So I’ve decided to pass, but just because I’m passing doesn’t mean it won’t be interesting for some readers!
It’s been almost a week since I’ve updated the Outdoor bidding war, so it’s time to provide an update! For a quick background, in my last post KSE had just received a $9.35 bid from KSE. I predicted the Intermedia would raise their bid to $9.75 after market close the next day; unfortunately, I was way off: Intermedia raised their bid to $9.75 the next morning.
In what’s become something of an annual tradition, this week I once again investigated an investment in Tandy Brands (TBAC). This time, however, I broke tradition and ended up buying a few shares. This post will discuss why I think an investment is cheap at today’s prices, but it all basically boils down to this: how much worse can things possibly get?
Aside from net-net investments, perhaps the one theme I have discussed the most on this blog is how to become a better investor. Many people will say the way to do so is to start reading annual reports and investing your own money. And I have no qualms with them. But the true secret is that you need a process for assessing how good your investment process is. You want to separate out skill from luck. And there’s one simple way to do that: start a blog.